Semi-Good Day

I am long some $TQNT from 6.74. It was a bad entry. I didn't write about it. But I tweeted here. I am trying to tweet more of this stuff. Sorry to those of my friends who are confused as to what is going on. But it gets me more followers, than my witty remarks, much to my chagrin. And that's really why we're all here. Not really.

It's held up way today in a choppy market. I'm happy about it. I took a minor hit on CIEN and still have a minor position. I just want broad semi-conductor exposure. That's why I diversified a little.

I think we end up. But I say all kinds of things. You should not listen to it.

Head in the Clouds

I like RAX here. It's at the bottom of it's range. It definitely could get boot stomped. But then I'll buy it again at 12. I like it here and down to 12, so long as the fundamentals don't change.

The writing is on the wall, in terms of cloud-computing taking over the world. While I will only dedicate a standard maximum position size of 10% to RAX, I will use up to 20% of my portfolio to exploit cloud computing (SaaS, IaaS) trends and 10% for 4G flays, as per monsieur Le Fly.


I'm not buying anything here, as I already have an 80% position in and around these levels. I will only add if it goes lower. If I were more risk-averse or believed any less in my thesis I would hold a tight stop in case it got beat the hell down at this support.

I'm not recommending that you buy RAX

Add on Weakness

As per my thesis, it's time to buy some shit.

I have an incredibly large cash positions for such shopping opportunities.

Let's be honest for a second, it's RATHER unlikely that the new iPhone will be recalled. The solution of a free case that fixes the signal to everyone is a good play. People will probably buy like 4 cases over the life of their iPhone. Shit, this will probably improve margins. Steve Jobs is one hell of a crafty bastard, after all.

I gotta love AAPL at this price. Target of $330.

Hat tip to @vcutrader for spurring me on a little in this nibble.

NOTE: The bulk of my AAPL position was purchased in and around $187

The Shake-Out.

Here is where I got hosed.

Actually, because of my phenomenal patience, I managed to cover my bases. I will sell this small $SPY position at the open for a tidy, albeit modest profit.

I'm testing this new thing, where I buy when the number gets yellow, as it does in the teens. I bought at 13.5. Assuming, as per the earlier yellow numbers, that it would bounce.

It didn't bounce.

I think there was a tell, that this was a shake-out. That this was not a real bottom. The fact that it was in the middle of our trading range should have been a tell. There was another one too, to do with the next day's score. But I was excited to test out something new so I jumped eagerly at any apparent opportunity.

Luckily, I didn't jump in too deep. I was only testing an idea, after all.

And I was sure to test again when the number got back into the teens, which did prove to be a short-term bottom.

Now I've got a few more days of ammo for my indicator. I'm going to try and work it in with some other things in order to produce a reliable buy signal. 3 out of 4 ain't terrible but I think I can do better. I just need to keep accumulating data. When I start a hedge-fund, I'll let you know (LOL).

On that note, I hate the use of LOLs and such. On another note, I obviously have no clue what I'm doing vis-a-vis the stock market, so don't take this shit for real. Do your due diligence, d'uh.

I'm still going to accumulate stocks I like, with solid fundamentals on weakness. I am just using some of my bountiful cash position to play these swings up and down the trading range.

Yingli Solar (YGE)

Finding this stock has been the best part of my world cup experience so far. Opportunity is everywhere, for those who pay attention.

YGE is gobbling up the solar market in California. The company also boasts robust fundamentals. I took a starter position at 10.97 and the stock is up 14% in the three days since.

I'm holding this bad boy for the longer term though, and happy to accumulate in the 10.50-8.50 range. I think it will eventually break into a higher range.

I also have a further small exposure to solar in the shape of a nascent FSLR position.

Strategic Planning.

As I said, I've been watching copious amounts of Create Capital. If you're into learning about the stock market, I've found in my own internet-based experience that videos go a long way. Don't get me wrong, reading and shit is important. But it's a nice supplementary tool.

Check out www.tickerville.com for timely analysis a few times a week.

I'm playing with an indicator of my own:




It's not perfect, as evidenced by the 13.5 shake-out. My strategy for playing this uncertain market is to accumulate stocks with strong fundamentals on weakness. I basically articulated that yesterday when I was talking about XOM. With a large cash position I will supplement my winship by playing the indices using a combination of indicators, including of course the aforementioned.

Since it's not really MY indicator, per se, I won't tell you what it is, at this point. All thanks and praise to the PPT

Other names that I will "get at" are YGE, RAX, VOD, NLX, NZT, FSLR, TEVA, OII. But only when they are "Petrzalka cheap."

I like technology and I'm willing to entertain eco-plays if the fundamentals are strong. There is probably a lot of money in that shit if people can pull it off profitably. Which remains to be seen in only a short matter of time, in my opinion.

The key to executing the above is to avoid getting caught up in the day to day. I'll nibble on positions as they dip into the lower end of their trading range. I'm also doing it in conjunction with about 437 other indicators including how many mosquito bites I might have gotten the night prior. Actually, you can make that a constant of zero. After I installed a complex system of fans nary a bug could stay airborne in the perpetual twister.

I'll keep you posted on how this goes...

Trading Thoughts

I have refrained from doing much of this, but it's what is taking up my time these days. I've been studying the art of active money management pretty intensely these last few weeks. Ergo, I will write about it. I always write about what I'm doing.

For now, I'll say if you are at all interested in the markets, at all, the best use of time you can get is heading over to www.createcapital.com every weekday morning at 9am. It's WELL worth it, should you have ANY interest in such things.

I was a net seller today, taking profit on the recent runs. I'll come back to this. I want to buy XOM on a pull-back because I think it looks cheap. I mean, take a look at it. And I mean, sorry eco-friends, but we're not getting off the oil-drip any time soon. From what I can tell this has sound fundamentals. If the Gulf tragedy has taught me anything, it's that there is a shit-ton of oil under the sea. These guys will be making money for awhile.

A Technological Gamble

I'm taking a full position on TYH. I don't usually just jump in like this. If it goes down, I'll double-down.

The stars have aligned, convincing me the current valuation of $31.14 is FAR from the appropriate valuation. I'll report back in a few days, hopefully/CERTAINLY with a win.

On a related note, I'm compiling the buy-list I mentioned here. I'll get back to you on that one after further review.

*Tips Hat.*

*By stars aligned, I mean this guy said it was a good idea.

A Stock-Saturated Sunday

I'm awake early, because I was boring yesterday. By that of course I mean I was too hungover to move. Seriously, I was labouring to breathe. I was going to go get groceries but I've downgraded the priority of that. I don't want to accumulate too much in the way of foodstuffs before running home late next week.

I feel more like researching anyways. I'm pretty bearish on the whole macro-economic situation. The Euro doesn't seem like a great option over the longer term. The markets have been volatile and I have been busy, so that means it's time to hide in cash and other low beta names. If things are going to get worse though, it's also an opportunity to go discount shopping. I'm researching stocks that are fundamentally awesome and have had strong earnings growth. I'm trying to get an idea of price history with a little technical analysis on the side. I want good long-term companies, that I can buy for cheap now, across an array of sectors. Maybe I'll share what I come up with.

Most of all, this is just another reflection on how amazing it is to me what we are capable of and privy to. Friday night, I had a conversation with a friend. He said that business as we knew it was dead. I don't think he knew what he was talking about. His lack of optimism and entrenched thinking upset me, to a surprising degree. I mean, I'm still thinking about it.

Fifty years ago I couldn't have acquired this comprehensive an analysis of the price history and fundamental picture of a given security. The internet has allowed me access to almost anything. One hundred and fifty years ago, if I had gone to work at the local factory, as the majority of the people would have, and I didn't like my job, I wouldn't have had any options. Last year, I went to work full-time for the first time. I hated my job. I quit and started my own thing. I stuck it to the man. This democratization of information must continue - it's my business model, after all - because it empowers the individual.

On a COMPLETELY unrelated note, I'm going to start using hashtags in my tweets more. It's because I saw this presentation. It's worth watching if you have some time.

Don't Time the Top

I see it in stock blogs all the time: Leave your bias at the door, find the trend, ride the trend and eventually get off. It's not worth trying to maximize your gains by picking the bottom or waiting to sell at exactly the right moment. Most of the money is made in the middle. At the extremes, the risks are too high.

I thought of this at work today, I'm not sure exactly what it was that prompted the reflection, but it's irrelevant. What matters is the realization, that not only in stocks, but in life, it's not about timing the top or picking the bottom.

It's about realizing the trends, riding them, and getting off. This means being observant. What trends in society, your customers, your peers, your community and your own personal life can you identify? This is trickier than it sounds, sometimes we find trends we desperately don't want to see. But don't deny yourself reality. This is the world we live in, so accept it for what it is. Check your bias at the door. Your original hypothesis might be wrong, swallow your pride and accept that. Your original hypothesis doesn't matter. Altering your hypothesis given what you observe however, is paramount.

Now that you've identified the trend and are exploiting it for all its worth - whether that be making a neat iPod cord management systems or investing in companies that clean up oil spills - try to stay objective. Don't fall in love with the trend. It's only a trend; as just a little more than a fad, it's destined to change. Set a target ahead of time, of what you're hoping to get out of the trend. Then stick to that target, or at the very least keep reflecting on it, to ensure you don't lose touch. Trends come into being slowly, but can go out of style quick. The important corollary, hidden in there then, is to always be on the lookout for new trends. Your cord management business might be going swell, but if wireless headphones are becoming the norm, you need to start working on a new product, to be ready for the next salvo of potential customers waiting to be served.

Identify, profit, get out. Repeat.