Semi-Good Day

I am long some $TQNT from 6.74. It was a bad entry. I didn't write about it. But I tweeted here. I am trying to tweet more of this stuff. Sorry to those of my friends who are confused as to what is going on. But it gets me more followers, than my witty remarks, much to my chagrin. And that's really why we're all here. Not really.

It's held up way today in a choppy market. I'm happy about it. I took a minor hit on CIEN and still have a minor position. I just want broad semi-conductor exposure. That's why I diversified a little.

I think we end up. But I say all kinds of things. You should not listen to it.

Head in the Clouds

I like RAX here. It's at the bottom of it's range. It definitely could get boot stomped. But then I'll buy it again at 12. I like it here and down to 12, so long as the fundamentals don't change.

The writing is on the wall, in terms of cloud-computing taking over the world. While I will only dedicate a standard maximum position size of 10% to RAX, I will use up to 20% of my portfolio to exploit cloud computing (SaaS, IaaS) trends and 10% for 4G flays, as per monsieur Le Fly.


I'm not buying anything here, as I already have an 80% position in and around these levels. I will only add if it goes lower. If I were more risk-averse or believed any less in my thesis I would hold a tight stop in case it got beat the hell down at this support.

I'm not recommending that you buy RAX

Metldeezy

I sold out of 3/4 of my CIEN position for a 1.5% loss. Negligible. It just ran hard though and could sell off further should weakness persist.

I think there is going to be a correction and then blammo upwards for August.

I also bought 1/2 a position of VXX

Boredom

It's a dangerous thing.

My plan is to accumulate on weakness and that's what I need to do. But then I get bored.

Yesterday I bought a 1/4 position of FAS at the closing bell. It was a gamble on the JPM earnings play, which they destroyed by the way. But it was dumb. I didn't really think about it. I did it because I was bored and undisciplined.

I managed to get out for a small gain that did little more than cover my fees. I was lucky though. The market was obviously flooded with sell orders on the open. I could have got had, badly.

Stick to the plan. Accumulate on weakness.

Add on Weakness

As per my thesis, it's time to buy some shit.

I have an incredibly large cash positions for such shopping opportunities.

Let's be honest for a second, it's RATHER unlikely that the new iPhone will be recalled. The solution of a free case that fixes the signal to everyone is a good play. People will probably buy like 4 cases over the life of their iPhone. Shit, this will probably improve margins. Steve Jobs is one hell of a crafty bastard, after all.

I gotta love AAPL at this price. Target of $330.

Hat tip to @vcutrader for spurring me on a little in this nibble.

NOTE: The bulk of my AAPL position was purchased in and around $187

The Shake-Out.

Here is where I got hosed.

Actually, because of my phenomenal patience, I managed to cover my bases. I will sell this small $SPY position at the open for a tidy, albeit modest profit.

I'm testing this new thing, where I buy when the number gets yellow, as it does in the teens. I bought at 13.5. Assuming, as per the earlier yellow numbers, that it would bounce.

It didn't bounce.

I think there was a tell, that this was a shake-out. That this was not a real bottom. The fact that it was in the middle of our trading range should have been a tell. There was another one too, to do with the next day's score. But I was excited to test out something new so I jumped eagerly at any apparent opportunity.

Luckily, I didn't jump in too deep. I was only testing an idea, after all.

And I was sure to test again when the number got back into the teens, which did prove to be a short-term bottom.

Now I've got a few more days of ammo for my indicator. I'm going to try and work it in with some other things in order to produce a reliable buy signal. 3 out of 4 ain't terrible but I think I can do better. I just need to keep accumulating data. When I start a hedge-fund, I'll let you know (LOL).

On that note, I hate the use of LOLs and such. On another note, I obviously have no clue what I'm doing vis-a-vis the stock market, so don't take this shit for real. Do your due diligence, d'uh.

I'm still going to accumulate stocks I like, with solid fundamentals on weakness. I am just using some of my bountiful cash position to play these swings up and down the trading range.

Going Shopping

There is a karmic storm a-brew. Somehow, the "Amnesty International Crowd" has seemingly transferred the stoning of an allegedly guilty Iranian woman to the RAX stock price.

I still like this bad boy. Cloud Computing is the future. I will buy this piece of trash down to 12. For now, I will nibble accordingly.

PEEP THIS hot track. The 1:30 de-hooding is boss.

UPDATE: July 13 - RAX is up almost 5% this morning. Yesterday's buy was well-timed I believe, indeed.

Yingli Solar (YGE)

Finding this stock has been the best part of my world cup experience so far. Opportunity is everywhere, for those who pay attention.

YGE is gobbling up the solar market in California. The company also boasts robust fundamentals. I took a starter position at 10.97 and the stock is up 14% in the three days since.

I'm holding this bad boy for the longer term though, and happy to accumulate in the 10.50-8.50 range. I think it will eventually break into a higher range.

I also have a further small exposure to solar in the shape of a nascent FSLR position.

Strategic Planning.

As I said, I've been watching copious amounts of Create Capital. If you're into learning about the stock market, I've found in my own internet-based experience that videos go a long way. Don't get me wrong, reading and shit is important. But it's a nice supplementary tool.

Check out www.tickerville.com for timely analysis a few times a week.

I'm playing with an indicator of my own:




It's not perfect, as evidenced by the 13.5 shake-out. My strategy for playing this uncertain market is to accumulate stocks with strong fundamentals on weakness. I basically articulated that yesterday when I was talking about XOM. With a large cash position I will supplement my winship by playing the indices using a combination of indicators, including of course the aforementioned.

Since it's not really MY indicator, per se, I won't tell you what it is, at this point. All thanks and praise to the PPT

Other names that I will "get at" are YGE, RAX, VOD, NLX, NZT, FSLR, TEVA, OII. But only when they are "Petrzalka cheap."

I like technology and I'm willing to entertain eco-plays if the fundamentals are strong. There is probably a lot of money in that shit if people can pull it off profitably. Which remains to be seen in only a short matter of time, in my opinion.

The key to executing the above is to avoid getting caught up in the day to day. I'll nibble on positions as they dip into the lower end of their trading range. I'm also doing it in conjunction with about 437 other indicators including how many mosquito bites I might have gotten the night prior. Actually, you can make that a constant of zero. After I installed a complex system of fans nary a bug could stay airborne in the perpetual twister.

I'll keep you posted on how this goes...

Trading Thoughts

I have refrained from doing much of this, but it's what is taking up my time these days. I've been studying the art of active money management pretty intensely these last few weeks. Ergo, I will write about it. I always write about what I'm doing.

For now, I'll say if you are at all interested in the markets, at all, the best use of time you can get is heading over to www.createcapital.com every weekday morning at 9am. It's WELL worth it, should you have ANY interest in such things.

I was a net seller today, taking profit on the recent runs. I'll come back to this. I want to buy XOM on a pull-back because I think it looks cheap. I mean, take a look at it. And I mean, sorry eco-friends, but we're not getting off the oil-drip any time soon. From what I can tell this has sound fundamentals. If the Gulf tragedy has taught me anything, it's that there is a shit-ton of oil under the sea. These guys will be making money for awhile.

It's Reality, Bro

I just finished reading a great book, The Big Short, by Michael Lewis. I read a lot of non-fiction. I enjoy it.

This particular piece of prose was about the collapse of the US sub-prime housing market.

One of the take home themes was something that has emerged in my life before, in other books and on more personal levels. In this tale of Wall Street mishap, it goes to show that the whole world, minus a handful of astute individuals, can be completely oblivious to tragedy and even go as far as to delude themselves into thinking that everything is great. But if the numbers underneath don’t support your belief, it’s only a matter of time until your house of cards comes tumbling down.

Embrace your reality, no matter how ugly.

Numbers don’t lie. And they don’t care if you like it or not.