Sunday, March 29, 2009

Portfolio Review - Mar 29/09

I'm going to do this, hopefully it becomes regular. I have a few long term holds I'm not going to talk about, namely XPH and short Commercial Real Estate.

400 DUG - Add to position below 24, sell levels: 26, 28, 29, 34

150 UNH - Flag/triangle pattern, looks like it could bust a move up or DOWN. The 5MA is trending up, the CCI is pretty high, which I like to think of as SELL. The gap down Friday was on really low volume and so it was probably profit taking? The gap up on the futures looks like it is within Friday's range and thus could fade. If I was sneaky and fast maybe I could sell at the open for a loss of a dollar and then go short twice as much and make a profit the same day. That being said PPT scores have been improving all week minus a slight Friday pullback, to be expected.

200 ERY I like the looks of the CCI and this one in general, but I think it needs a few more days. The 5MA is still down and needs to come up on a bit of a bounce. I'm going to add a little bit more if it dips between 33 and 30, this baby is pretty volatile. I will sell on a breach of 27.

200 SRS Another pretty volatile bad boy. Friday's run up had relatively good volume relative to the general market sell off/run up for inverse ETFs. I don't know if that means anything, but I'm noting it. If volume confirms trend, at least it's not hemorrhaging? The 5MA is about to turn around, I believe. On the other hand, upon review it is making me a little nervous. I'll sell below 50, and add between 50 and 52. I don't foresee holding it for too much longer, however.

300 FAZ And the third crazy musketeer of my leveraged ETF exposure. Huge volume Friday on the gap up, LATER BANKS. I think I'll add if it dips below 20 but have to drop it much deeper than that. I also need to do a little more research on the whole market before I feel extremely comfortable making big claims on stocks that are able to punch my face off within 2 hours and 89 points.

This is pretty volatile, all in all. Actually, the above detailed equities make up only 20% of my portfolio, maximum swing long exposure would be 40%. My ability to sleep at night comes from a 60% cash position and a 20% exposure short REIT and XPH, bought sub 25.

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